Mextra time: what England's 5am all-nighter made and cost the economy

It’s 1am on Monday morning. Most of the country should have been asleep. Instead, heart rates soared, and pints were poured, as fans crammed into pubs to watch England edge past co-hosts Mexico at the Azteca.

The reason so many could do this legally was that, for one night, the government gave pubs and bars in England and Wales permission to stay open until 5am. The match was considered an event of "exceptional national significance."

No individual applications, no paperwork — just twelve hours of potential trading where there would normally be a fraction of that, and a rare chance to boost takings.

So who came out ahead financially, not just on the scoreboard? The answer is more interesting (and complicated) than you might think.

The tills were ringing

The immediate winners were the pubs. Earlier analysis during the group stage showed that late kick-offs kept the evening economy going well past its usual bedtime.

Digital payments provider Dojo found that after England’s first group game against Croatia ended, spending was 353% higher than in the same period across the previous two weeks.

Data from Visa revealed a 15% increase in hospitality spending during the group stage compared to the previous year. Another payments company saw pub and bar transactions rise by about 120% between 10pm and 1am on match nights.

England's three group games alone were estimated to have poured an extra 5.5 million pints. Should the team actually reach the final, the British Beer and Pub Association thinks the tournament could add some 55 million pints in total.

The markets noticed too. Shares in the biggest pub groups went up on Monday morning, as investors hoped England's success would lead to more nights like this.

Some forecasts suggest the World Cup could add billions to the UK economy this summer, with extra spending on hotels, travel, and other things that come with a big national event. In a time when the economy needs growth, any reason for people to spend more is a good thing.

The morning after

But when Monday morning came, the hangover kicked in and the cost of a 5am finish falls on employers rather than landlords.

This is where things get murky, and estimates vary widely and should be taken with caution.

One workforce software study said lost productivity during the tournament could cost the UK about £681 million. Another study estimated up to 2.5 million lost working days, worth as much as £875 million. A brewer's survey suggested that one in five workers would call in sick after at least one match, with a possible economic impact of up to £2.4 billion, which could increase if England goes further in the tournament.

Why is there such a big range, from tens of millions to billions? It's because each study looks at different things.

Sick-pay costs differ from lost working days, and both differ from worst-case scenarios where everyone stops working. Most of these estimates were made before the tournament even started. Think of them more like weather forecasts than actual bills.

There are also two less obvious factors. The first is presenteeism.

People who come to work but are much less productive after only a few hours of sleep, which doesn't show up in absence records. The second factor is a recent rule change: statutory sick pay now starts from the first day someone is off, so a last-minute 'hangover Monday' costs employers more than before.

A score draw, roughly

To sum up, a late-night tournament held an ocean away doesn't really create or destroy money; it just moves it around. Instead of quiet after-work drinks, people have a few big, late nights out.

Most reliable projections still show a net positive for the summer. Productivity losses take away some of the gains, but they don't cancel them out.

The biggest unknown can't be found on any spreadsheet: it's whether England keeps winning. Each extra round means another late night, another licensing debate, another rush at the pubs, and another slow Monday.

On Saturday, the game against Norway will tell us how much longer this particular experiment in national economics has to run.

For anyone watching from abroad, at least the kick-off times are kinder. Small mercies.