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Latest News

US Bank Failures Are Slowing

24th October 2011

So far this year 85 banks have failed in the U.S. That’s down from 139 bank failures at the same time last year and 98 in 2009. So, it seems the U.S. has turned the corner in terms of bank failures.  Europe, on the other hand, is likely to see a spike in failures over […]

Historical Bear Market Comparisons

10th October 2011

Here’s a couple of interesting charts to help put the current market sell-off into perspective. [Click to enlarge]   [Click to enlarge]  

7Days: Avoid Bubbles of Trouble

5th October 2011

For those that missed it, here’s Holborn’s 7Days article from Tuesday 4th October: Avoid Bubbles of Trouble How can you tell if your hard-earned cash is invested right now in some vastly inflated asset? Financial bubbles are like disastrous relationships. The warning signs are easy to spot – but only in hindsight, when it’s far […]

Banks In Trouble. Again

5th October 2011

Here are a couple of interesting charts taken from Bespoke: Trouble in Financial Land. The first shows the percentage change in credit default swap (CDS) prices for major banks.  A CDS is like an insurance policy.   It obliges the seller of the CDS to compensate the buyer in the event of loan default.  High […]

September Asset Class Performance

4th October 2011

US bonds were the best performing asset class in September, rising 0.7% over the month. Emerging markets stocks got whacked, falling 18%.

Holborn Currency View

3rd October 2011

Holborn Currency View SEP11

JP Morgan Weekly Strategy Report

3rd October 2011

Here’s JP Morgan’s Weekly Strategy Report: JPM Global Strategy Weekly And here’s a chart taken form the report which shows the default probability (implied by credit default swap spreads) for Brazil, China and Russia. Seems like credit risk is on the rise almost everywhere now.  

St. Louis Fed Stress Index

3rd October 2011

We all know that stock markets have taken a hammering over the past few months.  But is this your normal, garden variety equity market sell-off or does the current selling presage a 2008-style economic collapse?  To what extent is there systematic risk? Almost everyone has an opinion on what’s going to happen.  They range from […]

ECRI: “U.S.heading into a recession”

3rd October 2011

The U.S. is heading into a recession and “there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.”  That’s what the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a respected economic forecasting firm, announced last week. The ECRI has a good record when it comes to predicting recessions.  They’ve not triggered a false alarm in 20 […]

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