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Latest News

Is Europe Already in a Recession?

27th October 2011

It looks that way according to the recently released Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is an indicator of economic health reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services (see here for more info).  The chart below shows the Eurozone PMI versus GDP. As you can see, PMI and GDP tend to […]

US Home Prices

27th October 2011

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index the average price of a U.S. house rose slightly in August, up 0.2 percent.  That means the average price of a U.S. home is now $142,840. On an inflation adjusted basis house prices have fallen 40 percent from their 2006 highs. And here’s a city by city breakdown […]

Oil Price Jumps 25% in 4 Weeks

26th October 2011

After falling 35 percent since May the price of crude oil has now rebounded by 25 percent. Is this good or bad news?  Good news:  the rise in crude oil could point to a pickup in economic growth.  Bad news:  higher oil prices will damage the prospects of an already fragile global economy.

US Bank Failures Are Slowing

24th October 2011

So far this year 85 banks have failed in the U.S. That’s down from 139 bank failures at the same time last year and 98 in 2009. So, it seems the U.S. has turned the corner in terms of bank failures.  Europe, on the other hand, is likely to see a spike in failures over […]

Historical Bear Market Comparisons

10th October 2011

Here’s a couple of interesting charts to help put the current market sell-off into perspective. [Click to enlarge]   [Click to enlarge]  

7Days: Avoid Bubbles of Trouble

5th October 2011

For those that missed it, here’s Holborn’s 7Days article from Tuesday 4th October: Avoid Bubbles of Trouble How can you tell if your hard-earned cash is invested right now in some vastly inflated asset? Financial bubbles are like disastrous relationships. The warning signs are easy to spot – but only in hindsight, when it’s far […]

Banks In Trouble. Again

5th October 2011

Here are a couple of interesting charts taken from Bespoke: Trouble in Financial Land. The first shows the percentage change in credit default swap (CDS) prices for major banks.  A CDS is like an insurance policy.   It obliges the seller of the CDS to compensate the buyer in the event of loan default.  High […]

September Asset Class Performance

4th October 2011

US bonds were the best performing asset class in September, rising 0.7% over the month. Emerging markets stocks got whacked, falling 18%.

Holborn Currency View

3rd October 2011

Holborn Currency View SEP11

JP Morgan Weekly Strategy Report

3rd October 2011

Here’s JP Morgan’s Weekly Strategy Report: JPM Global Strategy Weekly And here’s a chart taken form the report which shows the default probability (implied by credit default swap spreads) for Brazil, China and Russia. Seems like credit risk is on the rise almost everywhere now.  

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